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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/18 11:28

   Wheat, Corn Higher at Midday

   Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday, soybeans are narrowly mixed, and 
wheat is 7 to 15 cents higher. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 270. The dollar index is 
20 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude 
down $0.50. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are firmer with 
gold up $19.00.


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday to open the week, with trade 
extending the streak of hitting $3.80 during the session to 13 in a row with 
the early buying. Ethanol margins are little changed with ethanol futures flat 
to start the week. Corn basis remains steady to slightly softer, with little 
change in recent days but more open weather should help movement along with 
March basis contracts coming due. Weekly export inspections showed improvement 
at 795,228 metric tons. On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger 
Band and the fresh lows at $3.75, then the $3.71 four-month low, with 
resistance at the $3.94 recent 2 1/2 month high with the 20-day just above the 
market at $3.83 which we remain just below.


   Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade finding light buying with China 
relaxing more tariffs as part of the trade process, along with the expectations 
of new bookings for fall but they have yet to appear. Meal is flat to $1.00 
higher, and oil is narrowly mixed. South America continues to make good 
progress with weather and harvest moving forward with little change on the 
horizon with some rains delays in Brazil last week. The Brazilian ral remains 
very cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness near term with the 
end-of-week gains evaporating again. New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. 
corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in the U.S. as well with 
some gains last week. Weekly export inspections were in line with recent weeks 
at 992,294 metric tons. The March soybean chart support is the 20-day moving 
average at $8.91, with resistance $9.00 nearby.


   Wheat trade is 7 to 16 cents higher at midday with Chicago gapping higher 
overnight to lead action with further reductions to the Australian crop 
headlining the news to open the week. Weather threats for the Plains remain 
limited near term domestically with limited short term moisture across most of 
the Plains. Kansas City is at a 83-cent discount to Chicago, regaining a dime 
the last few days while Minneapolis is back to an 19 cent discount as well. 
World values remain mostly elevated with Chicago wheat expensive, and Kansas 
City wheat on the low end with Black Sea and European origin still the better 
deals for Middle East tenders. Weekly export inspections were better at 501,990 
metric tons. The March Kansas City chart support the lower Bollinger band at 
$4.55, with resistance the 20-day at $4.74. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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